A decision support system specification for cost escalation in heavy engineering industry

Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10149/58321
Title:
A decision support system specification for cost escalation in heavy engineering industry
Authors:
Dawood, N. N. (Nashwan); Bates, W. (William)
Affiliation:
University of Teesside. School of Science and Technology. Centre for Construction Innovation Research.
Citation:
Dawood, N. N. and Bates, W. (2002) 'A decision support system specification for cost escalation in heavy engineering industry', Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 17 (5), pp.342-357.
Publisher:
Wiley
Journal:
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
Issue Date:
Sep-2002
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10149/58321
DOI:
10.1111/1467-8667.00281
Abstract:
The heavy civil engineering industry (railways, sewage-treatment, chemical and pharmaceutical facilities, oil and gas facilities, etc.) is one of the major contributors to the British economy and generally involves a high level of investment. Clients in this industry are demanding accurate cost estimates, proper analysis of out-turn cost and cost escalation, and a high quality risk analysis throughout the construction processes. Current practices in the industry have suggested that there is a lack of structured methodologies and systematic cost escalation approaches to achieve an appropriate cost analysis at the outset of projects and throughout the construction processes. In this context the prime objective of this research work is to develop a structured cost escalation methodology for improving estimating management and control in the heavy engineering industry construction processes. The methodology is composed of a forecasting model to predict cost indices of major items in industry and a risk knowledge-base model for identifying and quantifying causes of cost escalations. This paper reviews and discusses a knowledge-based model for applying a cost escalation factor. The cost escalation factor is made up of market variation, a risk element, and a component for bias. A knowledge elicitation strategy was employed to obtain the required knowledge for the model. The strategy included questionnaires, interviews, and workshops, and deliverables came in the form of influences and their effect on project cost escalation. From these deliverables, a decision support system and specifications for applying cost escalation to base estimates are presented.
Type:
Article
Keywords:
cost escalation; project management; engineering industry; civil engineering; forecasting model; knowledge-based model; decision support system
ISSN:
1093-9687
Rights:
Subject to restrictions, author can archive post-print (ie final draft post-refereeing). For full details see http://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/ [Accessed 4/12/09]
Citation Count:
0 [Scopus, 4/12/2009]

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorDawood, N. N. (Nashwan)-
dc.contributor.authorBates, W. (William)-
dc.date.accessioned2009-04-01T10:48:58Z-
dc.date.available2009-04-01T10:48:58Z-
dc.date.issued2002-09-
dc.identifier.citationComputer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering; 17 (5): 342-357-
dc.identifier.issn1093-9687-
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1467-8667.00281-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10149/58321-
dc.description.abstractThe heavy civil engineering industry (railways, sewage-treatment, chemical and pharmaceutical facilities, oil and gas facilities, etc.) is one of the major contributors to the British economy and generally involves a high level of investment. Clients in this industry are demanding accurate cost estimates, proper analysis of out-turn cost and cost escalation, and a high quality risk analysis throughout the construction processes. Current practices in the industry have suggested that there is a lack of structured methodologies and systematic cost escalation approaches to achieve an appropriate cost analysis at the outset of projects and throughout the construction processes. In this context the prime objective of this research work is to develop a structured cost escalation methodology for improving estimating management and control in the heavy engineering industry construction processes. The methodology is composed of a forecasting model to predict cost indices of major items in industry and a risk knowledge-base model for identifying and quantifying causes of cost escalations. This paper reviews and discusses a knowledge-based model for applying a cost escalation factor. The cost escalation factor is made up of market variation, a risk element, and a component for bias. A knowledge elicitation strategy was employed to obtain the required knowledge for the model. The strategy included questionnaires, interviews, and workshops, and deliverables came in the form of influences and their effect on project cost escalation. From these deliverables, a decision support system and specifications for applying cost escalation to base estimates are presented.-
dc.publisherWiley-
dc.rightsSubject to restrictions, author can archive post-print (ie final draft post-refereeing). For full details see http://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/ [Accessed 4/12/09]-
dc.subjectcost escalation-
dc.subjectproject management-
dc.subjectengineering industry-
dc.subjectcivil engineering-
dc.subjectforecasting model-
dc.subjectknowledge-based model-
dc.subjectdecision support system-
dc.titleA decision support system specification for cost escalation in heavy engineering industry-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.contributor.departmentUniversity of Teesside. School of Science and Technology. Centre for Construction Innovation Research.-
dc.identifier.journalComputer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering-
ref.assessmentRAE 2008-
ref.citationcount0 [Scopus, 4/12/2009]-
or.citation.harvardDawood, N. N. and Bates, W. (2002) 'A decision support system specification for cost escalation in heavy engineering industry', Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 17 (5), pp.342-357.-
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