Judging from experience: experienced sequences are predicted better than described sequences

Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10149/218229
Title:
Judging from experience: experienced sequences are predicted better than described sequences
Authors:
Kusev, P. (Petko); van Schaik, P. (Paul) ( 0000-0001-5322-6554 ) ; Juliusson, A. (Asgeir); Kiley, Y. (Yvette)
Affiliation:
Kingston University; Teesside University.
Citation:
Kusev, P., van Schaik, P., Juliusson, A. and Kiley, Y. (2011) 'Judging from experience: experienced sequences are predicted better than described sequences, 52nd Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Seattle, 3-6 November, 2011.
Publisher:
Psychonomic Society
Conference:
52nd Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Seattle, 3-6 November, 2011.
Issue Date:
2011
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10149/218229
Additional Links:
http://www.psychonomic.org/annual-meeting.html
Abstract:
When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), as in learning about decisions from experience (e.g., Kusev et al., in press, JEP:HPP), or, as with learning about decisions from descriptions, they can also be retrospectively viewed holistically (static mode) – not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on three sorts of judgments: (i) predictions of the next event (forecast), (ii) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average) and (iii) judged satisfaction of workers given that the series represented their monthly income (satisfaction). Relative to the static mode participants‘ responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events for all three types of judgments but with different consequences – hence dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation.
Type:
Meetings and Proceedings
Language:
en
Keywords:
decision making; experience
Citation Count:
No citation information available on Web of Science or Scopus

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorKusev, P. (Petko)en_GB
dc.contributor.authorvan Schaik, P. (Paul)en_GB
dc.contributor.authorJuliusson, A. (Asgeir)en_GB
dc.contributor.authorKiley, Y. (Yvette)en_GB
dc.date.accessioned2012-04-11T15:19:15Zen
dc.date.available2012-04-11T15:19:15Zen
dc.date.issued2011en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10149/218229en
dc.description.abstractWhen attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), as in learning about decisions from experience (e.g., Kusev et al., in press, JEP:HPP), or, as with learning about decisions from descriptions, they can also be retrospectively viewed holistically (static mode) – not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on three sorts of judgments: (i) predictions of the next event (forecast), (ii) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average) and (iii) judged satisfaction of workers given that the series represented their monthly income (satisfaction). Relative to the static mode participants‘ responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events for all three types of judgments but with different consequences – hence dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation.en_GB
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPsychonomic Societyen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.psychonomic.org/annual-meeting.htmlen_GB
dc.subjectdecision makingen_GB
dc.subjectexperienceen_GB
dc.titleJudging from experience: experienced sequences are predicted better than described sequencesen
dc.typeMeetings and Proceedingsen
dc.contributor.departmentKingston University; Teesside University.en_GB
dc.identifier.conference52nd Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Seattle, 3-6 November, 2011.en_GB
ref.citationcountNo citation information available on Web of Science or Scopusen_GB
or.citation.harvardKusev, P., van Schaik, P., Juliusson, A. and Kiley, Y. (2011) 'Judging from experience: experienced sequences are predicted better than described sequences, 52nd Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Seattle, 3-6 November, 2011.en_GB
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